Giro Stage 7

Blogger was down last night so this went up on Facebook instead:

It’s nice to see Alessandro Petacchi sprinting well in a variety of situations. Long known as the guy who put the exclamation point on the end of one of the most fearsome lead-out trains in cycling (Velo, Tossato, Baldato, Kirchen, Bossoni, Hauptman, and Aug among others) Petacchi has instead shown a true affinity for the nuance of the pack sprint this year. Exhibits 1 and 2: I mentioned the prowess shown by Petacchi and his leadout guy Danilo Hondo at the end of stage 2. Yesterday, however, he showed he has the high level fitness that took him deeper into the maglia ciclamina jersey prior to the first mountain finish. He didn’t win, but he did pounce and isolate any of the other sprinters buy quite a few points. I’m betting he can wear red into Milan.

Stage 7 offers up the first of 8 summit finishes. The Santuario di Montevergine climb averages “only” 5% - but it does so for 17 kilometers and is a lovely climb for the first summit finish, meandering and switchbacking it’s way up a regional park. Will the big dogs come out to play or leave it to the ambitious aspirants? My guess, based on the first couple of climbs thus far….the big guns will take a run at the finish just to see if they can shake out any of the pretenders, but the real action will be saved for another day as a small group or riders will leap from the attack and counter-punching of the GC contenders on the lower slopes. Then again, someone WILL be looking for a few seconds advantage. Someone like Le Mevel (only a few seconds out of Pink), or Di Luca (desperate to redeem himself). Here’s how it looked in 2007:

Giro Stage 5

Today marks the start of the second Giro. This iteration perhaps more reflective of just what it means to race a Grand Tour and to be a professional cyclist.

Stage 5 may well be the perfect re-immersion for the peloton..it offers strade bianchi, the first glimpse of real climbing (two cat 3's) on a constantly undulating route that offers up a Poggio-esque finale that may well see a small group jump away to an inspiring victory.

The only real question is of the riders motivation. Certainly the past 36 hours have offered a lifetimes ride on a roller-coaster of emotion and it remains to be seen if they will plug into the task at hand. I think they will embrace the familiarity of the rolling peloton and the release offered by hard riding.

It favors the roulers like Dario Cioni, Popovich, DiLucca (which is a brilliant tactical play if he can take time and get, or at least get close, to the pink jersey) or perhaps Scarponi comes looking for early advantage....

Giro Stage 4 - The Legend of Pistoia

As we don't know what the racing will be like for Stage 4 - I think it's fair to say that since this stage rolls into Livorna and represents another, mostly, flat route that will likely end in a group gallop if they race at all. My guess is they will ride a la Motorola for Casertelli:




So let's talk about something else...

Not Mr Weylandt...that is a tragedy that I cannot speak to, nor would I try since I don't know him. I will say that I am proud of the racing community - from the world over, large and small, pro and amateur that have taken the time to offer condolences and a prayer for Mr Weylandt and his family during what is surely a heartbreaking time.

Rather than try to understand or comprehend, let's talk about Pistoia.

Recall that in 2004 we had our wedding in Italy and as part of the honeymoon we planned to take in a stage or two of the Giro. After leaving the Amazing Amalfi Coast on May 11th, we headed North in our little rental car intent on seeing some bike racing! Without much in the way of planning - a nod to Starr's letting me run the show since that is NOT how she rolls - we stopped in the quaint sounding town of Pistoia, just over the pass from the next days start in Poretta Terme. Smooth...

Except that Pistoia just felt wrong from the moment we rolled into town. We found an adequate room that was, if memory serves, at the top of a series of medievel looking stairs and floors. There was a single light in the room that shone bright as day, yet when out the room was darker than any I'd ever seen...So dark we slept with the lights on!

I don't recall if it was before or after we got that 'weird' feeling that we learned a bit about the city's history..but it certainly made an impression on us whichever the timeline. Like much of Italy it was full of war and treachery, occupation and counter-occupation. Michelangelo famously referred to Pistoiesi as "enemies of heaven" and there are dark days in it's history. Maybe we learned before...

We headed out to dinner and found a nice place that radiated dour. The atmosphere and staff were reserved, uninviting. Watching the people walk by on a nice May evening you'd expect young lovers awash in romance, or families enjoying the fountains - but none of that was to be seen. Shadows and dark shapes plied the night as we hurried through our meal and back to the hotel. It was a restless night of sleep.

Thankfully the next morning dawned rainy, but full of promise. We were heading to the race, but first we took in a sight or two - including the famous black and white marbled octagonal baptistrey...



We left from there for the drive to Poretta Terme and the start - it was all pink and grandiose. Cipollini was still King and Simoni wore the Maglia Rosa. Damiano Cunego's days were coming and ultimately the 2004 Giro would prove mostly uninspiring except for Damiano Cunego, who's been mostly uninspiring since. On our way out of town we got WAY lost and ended up at the top of a dead end road miles above the small town the race started in. We were deep in rural Italy and it was awesome! It took a few hours to find our way to the highway that would take us to Finale Ligure...but the day we spent there was a highlight of the trip for both being a bit weird and beautiful. It was Italy after all.

Giro Stage 3 - Perspective

Petacchi and his leadout man offered a crash course in riding a leadout. Recall that I said yesterday that if a rider gets the jump on Cavendish he's proven unable to overcome. Well Petacchi has the HUGE bendfit of having Danilo Hondo as his last rider in the run to the finish. Watch the video and you'll see over the last few kilometers that they hold and maintain a top 5 to 7 place (well, I haven't found more than the last few hundred meters yet), but don't take too many turns at the front. The trick was letting other teams come forward to drive the wind - by not pushing to the front unitl very very late it gave Petacchi the reserves of speed to launch. The second key was the jump...he hit it about a second before Cavendish and it was enough. He was wheels clear before he came acros Cav's line, so the relegation argument is moot in my opinion. Nice ride by a true professional Chapeau Alessandro...my apologies for not counting you amongst the favorites today. Won't happen again...



We are still a few days out from our first summit finish and any real climbing but I thought this was a very cool graphic:



It shows all of the stages longitudinally, with climbs noted. The Universal Sports guys were sayin that it was close to 100,000 feet of climbing! Anyway, I just thought it gave a nice perspective.

Speaking of perspective...most will predict that stage 3 ends in a bunch finish. It's just too early and the sprinters teams only have a few chances this year so they won't want much to get away. What that assessment lacks is perspective.

The Category 4 summit comes with just under 10kms of racing left..which is the perfect distance for a small group to successfull attack and stay away. So now the question becomes who is in the break? Let's get some perspective...

GC riders will sit this one out.
Sprinters and their teams won't be able to bring it back (says me)
That leaves opportunists and the lucky..you feeling lucky?

Androni Giacattoli is feeling lucky. Colnago CSF and BMC feel lucky too. Leopard Trek, Moviestar and Omega Pharma NEED to make some luck or this could be a long Giro. For me I think Vaconsoleil and Quickstep will be the luckiest...

1. Johnny Hoogerland - Vancansoleil
2. Dario Cataldo - Quickstep
3. Andrea Noe - Farnese Vini
4. Fabio Sabatini - Liquigas
5. Mauricio Ardilla - Geox

Giro Stage 2

Forgot about those speedy HTC guys! Bob Stapleton's crew threw down a speedy gauntlet that the others couldn't match and put Pinotti in the pink jersey first...a harbinger of the final in Milan? I can say that it was a mistake to not count the HTC guys...but hey, I hit it pretty good on the rest of the podium! Radioshack and Liquigas flipped my prediction, while Garmin-Cervelo in fifth, and Vaconsoleil in 10th did me proud! Astana...whoops. Ok, off to Sunday's stage...



Ding, ding, ding! Calling fast finishers, calling fast finishers...

This stage will undoubtedly be nervous and twitchy as riders slowly try to settle into the rhythm of the race. Fortunately, the route is very straight forward without much in the way of twists and turns. Mark Cavendish has the reputation and the stage wins that brough it - so he's the number one, for now. Clearly Tyler Farrar is also near the top of the heap and has shown steady progression year over year. I think the sprinters are starting to figure out the way to beat Cavendish - hit it out early and make him counter-punch in the finale.

There have been a few suprises in the sprint finishes at other races this year and I'm looking forward to seeing who really steps up their game this month. Rafael Valls of Geox-TMC is due for a big win, and don't forget Radioshack's Manuel Cardoso, Mateo Tossato of Saxo Bank and Brice Feillu of Leopard-Trek in your considerations. The equalizer may well be the 244Km length....but with everyone still fresh and the flat route it should be a full on finish! Given that, and HTC's prowess in the TTT I think they put Cavendish into the perfect spot to win, but I think Farrar will simply be faster if he can jump Cav.
Stage Prediction
1. Farrar
2. Cavendish
3. Valls - Geox TMC
4. Borit Bozic - Vacansoleil
5. Petacchi

Giro Stage 1 - My Italian Roots

The Giro D'Italia starts tomorrow and I'm gonna play blogger...trying to post something for every stage. Not all of 'em will be wordy and prolific, but perhaps a few will be worth the read...so here goes.

While most American fans have had a love affair since Andy Hampsten's '88 win, my personal Giro story starts in 2004. Of course I've always followed the race, but in 2004 I was lucky enough to get married in Italy and see my first ever Grand Tour live. Here's the route:



Given that memorable reference point, I thought it might make a nice back drop for this year's race. So...let's start off with a little comparison:

Total Length:
2004 - 3435 Kilometers
2010 - 3525 Kilometers

Individual Time Trial KM's
2004 - 59Kms
2010 - 45Kms

Mountain Top Finishes:
2004 - 3
2010 - 8

Total Climbing:
2004 - 18,500m (61,000+ feet!)
2010 - I can' nail it down precisely...but Stages 13, 14 and 15 have over 13,000m alone, adn there are 5 other mountain top finishes! Fortunately, we'll have plenty of time to discuss all of these in detail...


Top Contenders:
2004 - Gilberto Simoni (defending champion), Stefano Garzelli, Yaroslav Popovych, Andrea Noe, Franco Pelizotti, and Damiano Cunego (eventual winner).
2010 - Alberto Contador, Vincenzo Nibali, Denis Menchov, Michele Scarponi, Roman Kreuzinger, and Joaquin Rodriguez.

Ok, enough compare and contrast for now....let's get to Stage 1's Team Time Trial!

I haven't read all there is to read about it....I'm just going on two things. Roster and cohesion. While team Sky and Garmin carry big reputations in the time trial department I don't think they brought the squads to win this years TTT. Ironically (because I'm not a huge fan) Radioshack may pull out a suprise and I'm very curious to watch both Liquigas and Vaconsoleil race because they both have such great esprit d'corps. So my top five for stage 1

1. Liquigas
2. Radioshack
3. Astana
4. Garmin
5. Vaconsoleil

Ok, time to reset to Stage 2...

Vlaanderen's mooiste

Over the past decade or so I've really grown to appreciate the Ronde. Though it's always been legendary, I'll admit that I was less than insane for it in my first few years. Respect, yes. Reverence, not quite. For sure, great champions like Merckx, the Planckaerts, and Museew made their careers into legends on the bergs, but Roubaix always held my attention because the battles were more visible to an impressionable young American. LeMond stoked my early racing fire and he was rarely (7th in '85) a factor in Flanders (but he still got this pic in his first Sports Illustrated article in 1984 - yea, you should read it!)

Then Van Petegem won. He wasn't even really on my list of 'favorite riders at the time, but he took the win from wonder-kid-come-never-ran Frank Vandenbrouke and super-hero Johan Museew. It stuck in my memory for some reason and a deeper appreciation was born. That he went on to pull the Flanders - Roubaix double in 2003 is just sweet! Here's a short summary of that '99 race...



Of course Boonen was impressive in his wins, but much like Museew they just did't enthrall me (I'll give him his props for the tenacity of last years race, and for a stirring sprint victory at Gent-Wevelgem last week though. Good on ya Tomeke!)

The sweet spot for me was Stijn Devolder...and really that's where the love of Flanders comes from for me. Forget winning back-to-back (as only 5 others have done, including Boonen), it was the WAY he won those races. Pure Panache! Yea, he took some heat for the win in 2008 when Tomeke was 'supposed' to win...but watch the video and listen. He was on the attack from 46k, and smartly launched a tactically astute counter just as the break was caught...perfect team tactic! In the Belgian Champions tri-color no less! Awesome, simply awesome...



Ok, enough nostalgia..let's get to this year. The runnup has been fun to watch. From the E3 to Gent Wevelgem and 3 Days of Depanne...there has been great racing that puts a variety of riders on the 'watch' list and will hopefully* make for a great and thrilling race. Let's work our way thru the destruction sure to be metted out...

It's only fair to give due credit to the incredible depth that is coming to the race. Many of the teams have multiple threats that just might create the tactical situation Fabian Cancellara can't overcome. While not quite favorites for Sunday Thomas DeGendt and Marco Marcato at Vaconsoleil, Nikki Terpstra, Gert Steegmans and Sylvain Chavanel at Quick-Step, Leif Hoste and Fillippo Pozato at Katusha, and quick rising Lars Boom at Rabobank may just add to the story line. And that's only a partial list. Among my top favorites:

Stijn Devolder - you knew he'd make my list right? I'd look for him to be active early in the hopes that he can sneak out to a worthwhile margin and force the others to come to him. He's not been seen in the mix much yet this season, but that may actually serve to his tactical advantage

Phillippe Gilbert - On good form, if not quite up to his traditional fall flurry of fitness, Philippe will play a roll in the race. I see him forcing a selection on one of the infamous middle climbs like the Oude Kwaremont, Paterberg or Koppenberg. It won't break the field, but it will seal a fate or two.

Juan Antonio Flecha - has suprisingly agressive race at the RVV. He's often an instigator and may well be in the break as they cross the Taaienberg and Valkenburg, but I think the Muur - Kapelmuur will again be the make or break point - and he's very good on that climb. Good enough to stay in touch with

Alessandro Ballan - he's ridden well in the spring. He's won before. He has Van Avermat to play the foil. Maybe, just maybe it'll go his way. To do so he needs a small group together over the Muur.

Thor Husovd - Tyler rode very well last year (5th), but I just think Thor is better suited to this race. Motivated and tough, he may be the guy to tag onto the super-duo

Tom Boonen - you can't forget his two wins. It simply means too much to Tom to win and he dearly wants another crack at redemption. He doesn't have to drop Fabian, he just has to take him to the line. then again...

*Cancellara may simply ride away...

Enjoy!

Ghent Wevelgem - Spring is Here!!

Ghent Wevelgem is often considered a semi-classic, but in a true underdog run it is striving to raise it's profile. Previously held on the Wednesday between the Tour of Flanders and Paris Roubaix, G-W moved to the Sunday before RVV last year, presumably in an attempt to become more relevant. I like the mid-week slot better...it ties the week together and, frankly, the cycling world needs to embrace the mid-level race instead of always looking for bigger-better. I am curious to see how the lack of a mid-week race may impact the riders freshness and agressiveness though.

They call is a 'sprinters' classic - and a quick persusal of the results bears this out for the most part, but it is equally likely that an all-arounder will win as evidenced by the variety of winners since 2000...

Sprinters: Van Bondt, Cipollini, Hushovd, Freire, Eisel

Roulers: Boonen, Mattan, Boasson Hagen, Hincapie, Burghardt, Klier

Ok, enough history - who's gonna pull it this year? Well...the list of POTENTIAL winners is as long as any other spring race..perhaps longer given the sometime selective/sometimes not nature of the course - in which case weather is the likely decider. Belgian wind and rain can take the measure out of any favorite who isn't on the sharp end at the right time. Unforunatley it's looking sunny.

Among the interesting storylines that might develop would be Andre Greipel getting a huge helping hand from Philippe Gilbert after his selfless riding at M-S-R last weekend. I don't think Gilbert will want to put it all on the line for this race with RVV coming up, so it's a natural tactic...and I wouldn't be suprised to see him working. Similarly Hushovd may well be at the disposal of Farrar given the proximity of RVV and Roubaix, if Farrar can make the selection.

Being a fan of the underdog I have to give a shout out to a few other potential spoilers. Yoann Offredo and Dominuqe Rollin could be a really deadly combination if the weather is deep (wouldn't you love to see that?). Thomas Voeckler is another shadow player in previous classics who is on better form than he's ever known (even when in yellow!). My regard for the Frenchman has gone up quite a bit since his World Cup win in Canada last year. I'm just sorry Stijn Devolder won't be on the start line.

Ok, enough writing - I'm going somewhat against the grain here..it's just too tempting given the vast array of commentary that is picking Cancellara or Gilbert (both of whom would be very deserving winners) is my list of possible winners, not necessarily their finishing order (but hey, why not)...

1. Thos Husovd
2. Leif Hoste

3. Juan Antonio Flecha
4. Sergei Ivanov

5. Yoann Ofredo

Journalism-ish and Great Racing

More and more I find myself getting my race information from ever-more-sublime sources. There was a time when Winning Bicycle Racing Illustrated was the only read to read honestly. You can check out some 30+ covers - and I read every one!
They also produced the Tour De France Special Issues - BIG oversize format and chock full of great images...I promptly cut up the first few just to get some pics of LeMond and Hinault in '86, but I digress.

After Winning, VeloNews held the top spot for a long time. Big format, lots of Euro coverage, and a host of local stuff. VeloNews WAS cycling journalism.



Then the internet came along and the original CyclingNews.com crossed my path about mid 1998 and I was hooked. HOOKED! You can look through the "way-back" time machine and relive those heady days. It was just so cool to get up to date content from far away Europe and Australia. Bill did us all a great service and I hope he made a good return when he sold it...

Unfortunately, he sold it..and therein lies the problem. All that is cool is absorbed and diluted. Winning was cool. VeloNews was cool. CyclingNews was cool....then they weren't. Now they are aggregators of information, publishers of press releases, passers-on. They have somewhat made the sport as dull as race radios are purported to do. I can read the same article word for word on at least a half dozen sites

I admit it for awhile I was bored with pro-cycling. It was all so pre-destined, even the racing to a degree. The love was still there, but the passion was waning a bit.

Fortunately, my salvation came in the form of blogs about cycling by informed, smart, and intelligent writers, by not-so-run-of-the-mill content on bigger sites, and by live streaming video of races! Just this past weekend I went out and bought a converter to watch live video streams from my computer on my television...it's awesome!

While most of these don't fall under the auspices of real journalism, I think it's fair to say that real journalism, at least in mainstream cycling media, is mostly a myth anyway, so I'll take my faux journo sites for now.

The other side of the equation is the racing. Watching Tierreno Adriatico and those incredible finishes pushed me back to full-throttle love for the sport! Forget the prognostications, the new technology (ok, not all of it), and the over-analysis and just watch the racing. It's been really good this year and we're just getting started. Now if only we had some great video coverage of smaller/local races we might be on our way...

Let's end with some racing:

Late Night Prognostications - Milan San Remo

The spring racing has been tremendous this year. Thanks to cyclingfans I've been able to watch a variety of races that I wouldn't normally have seen, and we can't forget the often great coverage afforded by Universal and Versus (but please get some new commentators!). So we have a good idea of who's riding well and it's a long list:

- Thor Husovd demonstrated some power at Tierrno Adriatico
- Damiano Cunego looked good too
- Ballan was very good at Strade Bianche and Tierreno
- Phillippe Gilbert...come on, that guy is a threat all the time
- Cancellara seemed to be improving but does he have that extra gear?
- Farrar (but honestly, I think Husovd will have the power after 300k)
- Peter Sagan has shown some flair in the early season.
- Oscar Freire has to be on any short list that's made

and there were some disappointments:
- Cavendish...just ain't getting it done
- Boonen is close, but not quite there yet
- Petacchi seems to have lost more than a step this season (yea, maybe it's illness, maybe not).

But let's throw a wrench or two into the mix - The Longshots
- Vincenzo Nibali is a great foil to Peter Sagan
- Alessandro Ballan is another rider coming into 2011 with something to prove. Solid on the Strade, a great worker for Cadel at Tierreno...I think he makes the podium, perhpas.
- JJ Haedo has shown that he can win at this level and might just be a suprise podium finisher - hey, it's called the longshots section for a reason, right?
- Thomas DeGendt or Marco Marcato are my ultra-longshot...i love the way Vaconsoleil races and they've been solid top 20 riders in several races this season, including DeGendt's 3rd place from the break in Stage 4 of Paris Nice.

So, who's the final podium? Well, it's always a guessing game so my guesses are
1. Thor Husovd
2. Phillippe Gilbert
3. Oscar Freire
4. Peter Sagan
5. Thomas DeGendt

we'll know in a couple of hours!